Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 19 2021 | 11143 | 49246 | 366 | 105 | 87 | 113 |
| March 20 2021 | 11156 | 49307 | 367 | 105 | 82 | 114 |
| March 21 2021 | 11161 | 49379 | 367 | 105 | 77 | 115 |
| March 22 2021 | 11161 | 49408 | 367 | 105 | 77 | 115 |
| March 23 2021 | 11168 | 49377 | 369 | 105 | 82 | 112 |
| March 24 2021 | 11187 | 49490 | 371 | 105 | 95 | 113 |
| March 25 2021 | 11202 | 49547 | 371 | 105 | 105 | 118 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.0 | 10.5% | 11 | 0.1% | 11 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 1.6 | 17.1% | 18 | 0.13% | 21 | 0.15% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 1.9 | 14.3% | 15 | 0.07% | 13 | 0.06% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 1.3 | 12.4% | 13 | 0.1% | 17 | 0.12% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 1.4 | 14.3% | 15 | 0.14% | 17 | 0.16% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.1 | 10.5% | 11 | 0.09% | 14 | 0.11% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.9 | 10.5% | 11 | 0.1% | 11 | 0.1% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.3 | 10.5% | 11 | 0.11% | 14 | 0.13% |
| All ages | 15 | 9.4 | 100% | 105 | 0.1% | 118 | 0.11% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 19 2021 | 7139 | 28967 | 231 | 93 | 52 | 67 |
| March 20 2021 | 7149 | 28987 | 231 | 93 | 56 | 72 |
| March 21 2021 | 7149 | 29019 | 232 | 93 | 48 | 69 |
| March 22 2021 | 7149 | 29029 | 232 | 93 | 39 | 67 |
| March 23 2021 | 7151 | 29012 | 234 | 93 | 37 | 64 |
| March 24 2021 | 7160 | 29066 | 235 | 93 | 44 | 67 |
| March 25 2021 | 7164 | 29103 | 236 | 93 | 44 | 63 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.3 | 2.3% | 1 | 0.01% | 1 | 0.01% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.0 | 29.5% | 13 | 0.15% | 15 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.3 | 9.1% | 4 | 0.06% | 7 | 0.1% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 0.4 | 6.8% | 3 | 0.04% | 5 | 0.06% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.6 | 15.9% | 7 | 0.09% | 10 | 0.13% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.0 | 15.9% | 7 | 0.07% | 10 | 0.1% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.9 | 18.2% | 8 | 0.1% | 11 | 0.13% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.1 | 2.3% | 1 | 0.01% | 4 | 0.06% |
| All ages | 4 | 4.6 | 100% | 44 | 0.07% | 63 | 0.1% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 19 2021 | 5484 | 19125 | 242 | 76 | 48 | 72 |
| March 20 2021 | 5493 | 19163 | 243 | 76 | 47 | 72 |
| March 21 2021 | 5496 | 19181 | 243 | 76 | 46 | 70 |
| March 22 2021 | 5496 | 19190 | 244 | 76 | 41 | 66 |
| March 23 2021 | 5498 | 19182 | 244 | 76 | 38 | 62 |
| March 24 2021 | 5505 | 19231 | 245 | 76 | 36 | 59 |
| March 25 2021 | 5507 | 19258 | 246 | 76 | 35 | 57 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.3 | 5.7% | 2 | 0.04% | 4 | 0.07% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.7 | 20% | 7 | 0.13% | 10 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 0.1 | 8.6% | 3 | 0.07% | 4 | 0.09% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.7 | 20% | 7 | 0.13% | 12 | 0.22% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.1 | 2.9% | 1 | 0.02% | 5 | 0.1% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.4 | 20% | 7 | 0.1% | 11 | 0.16% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.6 | 11.4% | 4 | 0.06% | 4 | 0.06% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.4 | 11.4% | 4 | 0.06% | 7 | 0.11% |
| All ages | 2 | 3.4 | 100% | 35 | 0.08% | 57 | 0.13% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 19 2021 | 12324 | 54256 | 378 | 80 | 62 | 67 |
| March 20 2021 | 12336 | 54373 | 378 | 80 | 74 | 79 |
| March 21 2021 | 12340 | 54453 | 378 | 80 | 62 | 79 |
| March 22 2021 | 12340 | 54485 | 378 | 80 | 56 | 79 |
| March 23 2021 | 12350 | 54470 | 379 | 80 | 61 | 88 |
| March 24 2021 | 12365 | 54651 | 379 | 80 | 68 | 103 |
| March 25 2021 | 12377 | 54733 | 379 | 80 | 78 | 99 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 1.7 | 14.1% | 11 | 0.09% | 12 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 0.9 | 10.3% | 8 | 0.05% | 9 | 0.05% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 1.0 | 14.1% | 11 | 0.05% | 18 | 0.08% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 1.3 | 17.9% | 14 | 0.1% | 20 | 0.15% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.1 | 16.7% | 13 | 0.1% | 16 | 0.12% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.7 | 12.8% | 10 | 0.07% | 14 | 0.1% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.6 | 6.4% | 5 | 0.04% | 6 | 0.04% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.4 | 7.7% | 6 | 0.05% | 4 | 0.03% |
| All ages | 12 | 7.7 | 100% | 78 | 0.07% | 99 | 0.08% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 19 2021 | 41528 | 327292 | 1291 | 282 | 526 | 714 |
| March 20 2021 | 41555 | 327317 | 1294 | 288 | 507 | 660 |
| March 21 2021 | 41605 | 327888 | 1297 | 288 | 469 | 661 |
| March 22 2021 | 41637 | 328224 | 1298 | 288 | 430 | 664 |
| March 23 2021 | 41654 | 328214 | 1300 | 288 | 392 | 652 |
| March 24 2021 | 41720 | 328630 | 1305 | 288 | 410 | 672 |
| March 25 2021 | 41792 | 329048 | 1309 | 289 | 460 | 656 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 3.4 | 6.7% | 31 | 0.05% | 44 | 0.07% |
| 10-19 | 12 | 8.3 | 19.8% | 91 | 0.13% | 125 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 16 | 10.1 | 23.7% | 109 | 0.1% | 148 | 0.14% |
| 30-39 | 20 | 7.7 | 15.2% | 70 | 0.09% | 113 | 0.15% |
| 40-49 | 12 | 5.6 | 13.7% | 63 | 0.1% | 86 | 0.13% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 5.1 | 12% | 55 | 0.08% | 79 | 0.12% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 3.3 | 6.7% | 31 | 0.06% | 46 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 0 | 1.1 | 2.2% | 10 | 0.02% | 15 | 0.03% |
| All ages | 72 | 44.7 | 100% | 460 | 0.08% | 656 | 0.12% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 19 2021 | 571610 | 2679789 | 27024 | 6562 | 4276 | 5452 |
| March 20 2021 | 572012 | 2682059 | 27072 | 6576 | 4162 | 5648 |
| March 21 2021 | 572432 | 2686087 | 27102 | 6576 | 4080 | 5739 |
| March 22 2021 | 572770 | 2688686 | 27126 | 6576 | 3868 | 5899 |
| March 23 2021 | 573123 | 2688182 | 27182 | 6587 | 3759 | 5789 |
| March 24 2021 | 573899 | 2693696 | 27254 | 6597 | 4261 | 6049 |
| March 25 2021 | 574436 | 2698173 | 27314 | 6599 | 4504 | 6084 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 63 | 35.9 | 8.1% | 363 | 0.06% | 483 | 0.08% |
| 10-19 | 92 | 76.6 | 16.3% | 736 | 0.1% | 973 | 0.13% |
| 20-29 | 74 | 65.0 | 14.4% | 649 | 0.09% | 896 | 0.12% |
| 30-39 | 107 | 78.7 | 16.6% | 749 | 0.1% | 1041 | 0.14% |
| 40-49 | 71 | 68.1 | 14.5% | 654 | 0.09% | 872 | 0.12% |
| 50-59 | 68 | 68.6 | 15.3% | 688 | 0.08% | 931 | 0.11% |
| 60-69 | 44 | 43.6 | 9.8% | 443 | 0.06% | 585 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 18 | 23.0 | 4.9% | 222 | 0.03% | 303 | 0.05% |
| All ages | 537 | 459.4 | 100% | 4504 | 0.08% | 6084 | 0.1% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.3 | 15.4 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 17% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.7 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 16.8% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.6 | 3.4 | 6.1 | 15.1% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.4 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 10.2% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 17.6 | 14.2 | 44.7 | 52.3 | 13.3% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.4 | 12.9 | 11.8 | 459.4 | 420.7 | 13.7% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-04-15 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5757"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges